A year has passed since the outbreak of war in Gaza, and its impact has rippled across the region, reaching Lebanon, Yemen, and Syria. The Iranian regime has played a crucial role in this conflict. Numerous officials and state-affiliated media have openly acknowledged their involvement in preparing the ground, initiating the war, and providing logistical support—ranging from delivering military equipment and missiles to digging tunnels and training militants.
One stark example of this involvement came from Ezzatollah Zarghami, a former high-ranking official, who confessed, “I spent time in the underground tunnels of the Palestinians, conducting rocket training classes for the resistance forces.”
As the region grapples with the bloody aftermath of this conflict, it is worth assessing the broader consequences, particularly given Iran’s deep involvement and the effects this war has had on the Iranian people.
Iran’s Motivations and Regional Costs
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s primary aim in instigating the Gaza conflict was to deflect attention from domestic unrest in Iran. However, the cost of this destructive war was felt first and foremost by the people of Israel and Gaza, followed by Lebanon and, eventually, Iran itself. Ordinary Iranians now face increased repression, inflation, and severe economic strain, while other countries in the region also continue to endure the war’s shocks.
The statistics of destruction and human suffering are staggering.
According to Israeli sources, the attack on October 7, 2023, was the deadliest in Israel’s history, with more than 1,200 people killed. Additionally, 251 individuals were taken hostage by Hamas and affiliated groups. On the Palestinian side, the United Nations estimated that by September 2024, Gaza’s population of two million had been decimated—90% displaced, with around two percent of the population either killed or injured. Specifically, 41,467 people have been killed, and over 95,000 wounded.
Gaza’s infrastructure has also been devastated. According to United Nations estimates, 58.7% of the buildings in Gaza have been demolished since the beginning of the war. As of mid-2024, more than 40 million tons of debris had accumulated, covering every square meter of Gaza with an average of 115 kg of rubble. The clearance of this debris, some of which contains unexploded ordnance, is projected to take 15 years and cost upwards of $500 million.
In Lebanon, the war’s impact has been similarly catastrophic. Around one million people have been displaced, and over 2,000 have been killed. The situation for Syrian refugees living in Lebanon, estimated at 1.5 million, has become even more precarious, as they are trapped between a war-torn Lebanon and a hostile Syrian regime under Bashar al-Assad.
Internal Failures for Iran’s Regime
While Khamenei successfully diverted attention from potential uprisings within Iran through the conflict, his regime has faced significant setbacks. Politically, Khamenei has been unable to consolidate power within the regime. The death of President Ebrahim Raisi, who was instrumental in purging disloyal elements from the regime, left a vacuum. Khamenei had to accept the presidency of Masoud Pezeshkian, despite widespread boycotts. Even the state-controlled newspaper Etemad admitted to growing internal dissent, warning that “criticism of the 14th administration is rising, and it is expected to intensify in the coming months.”
Social unrest remains prevalent in Iran as well. Large-scale protests, strikes, and gatherings—particularly from nurses, workers, retirees, and students—have continued, setting new records. The unrest, rooted in economic hardship and government oppression, has become an almost daily occurrence.
A Waning Influence Abroad
Khamenei’s most significant setback, however, has been on the international stage. For decades, he cultivated proxy forces across the Middle East, leveraging their power to bolster his regime’s influence. Khamenei boasted of Iran’s control over four major Arab capitals, a status achieved largely thanks to Western powers’ policy of appeasement.
Yet the past year has revealed the limits of Iran’s influence. The regime’s external terror networks, once seen as formidable, are now being systematically dismantled. Khamenei’s ability to wield regional power through proxies has diminished, with the regime appearing weaker and more fragile than before.
In conclusion, while Iran’s regime may have achieved short-term tactical gains, the long-term consequences of Khamenei’s adventurism in Gaza have been disastrous. The war has inflicted immense suffering on the people of the region, and it has exposed the regime’s vulnerabilities both at home and abroad. As the conflict enters its second year, the strategic loss for Khamenei’s regime is undeniable, and the international community is increasingly recognizing Iran as the primary source of instability and terror in the Middle East.
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