The fall of Aleppo during the new conflicts in Syria marks a pivotal event with far-reaching consequences, particularly for Iran’s regime and its regional proxies. This development represented a substantial strategic setback not only in the military sphere but also in the broader political and regional context. It disrupted key power dynamics and challenged Iran’s policies in Syria and its long-standing support for Lebanon’s Hezbollah.
Syria’s Strategic Importance to Iran
For the Iranian regime, Syria has always been more than just an ally. It serves as the critical corridor for transferring military aid and weapons to Hezbollah and other proxies. Since the outbreak of the Syrian war, Iran, primarily through Hezbollah, has sought to maintain its influence in Syria and secure strategic positions essential for sustaining its regional presence. The fall of Aleppo, one of the key bases in the Syrian conflict, directly undermined these efforts by destabilizing Iran’s military supply routes and weakening its proxy forces.
Impact on the “Axis of Resistance”
The Assad regime’s stability is central to the Iranian regime’s strategy against Israel. Should Assad fall, the survival of Iran’s proxy groups—particularly Hezbollah—would be jeopardized. These groups rely heavily on Damascus for logistical and military support. Without Assad, Iran’s ability to project power in the region and support Palestinian factions such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad would be severely diminished. Moreover, the loss of Syria could undermine the Iranian regime’s ideological and strategic framework, which positions the Assad government as a cornerstone of the so-called “axis of resistance.”
Shifting Dynamics After Aleppo
Although Bashar al-Assad regained Aleppo in 2016 with robust support from Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, the situation has changed dramatically in recent years:
- Russia’s Diverted Focus: The ongoing war in Ukraine has significantly reduced Russia’s capacity to assist Assad militarily.
- Hezbollah’s Weakening Role: Heavy losses in conflicts with Israel and widespread discontent among the Lebanese population have limited Hezbollah’s ability to intervene effectively in Syria.
- Iran’s Economic Constraints: Severe economic challenges, including a crippling budget deficit, have hampered Iran’s ability to provide extensive financial and military support. While Iran has already poured tens of billions of dollars into Syria, sustaining this level of investment has become increasingly untenable.
The Vulnerability of Iranian Proxies
Iran’s proxies in Syria face significant challenges. The deaths of high-ranking IRGC commanders, including Qassem Soleimani, have left a leadership void. Proxy forces such as the Afghan Fatemiyoun Brigade and Iraq’s Hashd al-Shaabi are no longer as effective as they once were. Even Hezbollah, a key player in propping up Assad, has been weakened by its own internal and external struggles.
Implications of Assad’s Fall
The collapse of Assad’s regime would have profound consequences:
- Cutting Off Supply Lines: The route for transferring weapons to Hezbollah via Damascus and Latakia airports would be severed.
- Weakening Palestinian Groups: Iran’s ability to support groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad would diminish significantly.
- Disrupting Illicit Networks: Arms and drug trafficking channels to Jordan and the West Bank, often linked to Iran’s proxies, would face disruption.
A Critical Juncture for the Iranian Regime
For Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the IRGC, preserving Assad’s government is a matter of existential importance. Despite their diminishing resources, they are likely to intensify efforts to prevent Assad’s fall. However, the tools and influence they once wielded are no longer as potent. The potential collapse of the Assad regime could signal the unraveling of the “axis of resistance” and pose a significant threat to the Iranian regime’s future.
As regional dynamics continue to evolve, the fall of Aleppo remains a stark reminder of the fragility of Iran’s regional ambitions and the limits of its influence in an increasingly volatile Middle East.
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