After the Israel-Hezbollah conflict, the group faces mounting internal and external challenges as international calls for disarmament grow.
In the wake of the recent war between Israel and Hezbollah, the Iranian-backed militant group is reportedly undergoing one of the most serious crises in its history. According to an exclusive report by Al-Hadath, the conflict has not only inflicted heavy losses on Hezbollah’s military capabilities but has also triggered a dramatic internal unraveling—marked by widespread defections, financial strain, and declining territorial control.
Collapse of Manpower and Command Structure
Citing informed sources, Al-Hadath reports that Hezbollah has lost a substantial portion of its fighting force. In 2021, the group’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah claimed it had over 100,000 professional militants. However, only around 60,000 remain in active ranks today.
Of these losses, approximately 10,000 fighters have been removed from the group’s operational structure as a result of Israeli airstrikes during the recent conflict. These include an estimated 4,000 commanders, field operatives, and other unit members who were killed, and more than 3,000 who were seriously wounded. In addition, about 2,000 militants reportedly abandoned the group following the death of Hassan Nasrallah, a development that points to an internal leadership vacuum and morale crisis.
Strategic Retreat and Territorial Losses
The aftermath of intensified Israeli drone strikes has forced Hezbollah to shut down most of its military training facilities in the Bekaa Valley and southern Lebanon. Lebanese military sources indicate that over 80 percent of the area south of the Litani River is now under the control of the national army. Heavy weaponry belonging to Hezbollah has been either destroyed or confiscated in these operations.
Security officials have further confirmed that Hezbollah’s influence in southern Lebanon has diminished significantly. The group no longer maintains a structured or coherent presence in regions it once considered strongholds.
Financial Pressure and Isolation
Hezbollah’s financial network has also taken a hit. Routes traditionally used to transfer money and weapons into Lebanon have been disrupted or closed, severely limiting the group’s access to funding. The resulting financial squeeze has compounded internal dissatisfaction and restricted the group’s ability to recover militarily or operationally.
Debate Over Disarmament Intensifies
In parallel with Hezbollah’s weakening military posture, international and domestic pressure to disarm the group is increasing. The United States, through mediator Tom Barak, has presented a proposal to completely disarm Hezbollah by November.
Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has publicly stated that it is not feasible to create an independent Hezbollah unit within the national army. However, he noted that individual recruitment of former Hezbollah members through lawful processes could be considered.
This suggestion has sparked heated debate. Fadi Karam, a member of the Lebanese Forces party, warned that any such integration must be on equal footing with other recruits, with no special privileges. He also rejected attempts to model Lebanon’s military structure after Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces, cautioning that Lebanon’s sectarian sensitivities differ sharply from Iraq’s.
Military analysts have echoed these concerns. Retired General Mounir Shehadeh noted that mass recruitment of Hezbollah fighters—many of whom may fail to meet medical, physical, or legal requirements—would jeopardize the delicate sectarian balance of Lebanon’s armed forces.
A Tipping Point for Hezbollah?
The convergence of battlefield defeats, leadership instability, financial collapse, and growing calls for disarmament suggests that Hezbollah is approaching a critical juncture. While the group continues to assert political influence in Lebanon and resists full disarmament, its leverage is visibly weakening.
Nevertheless, Hezbollah appears to be banking on political bargaining to secure its future role, possibly through negotiated integration or concessions. Yet continued defiance of government directives and international expectations may only accelerate its decline—and increase the risk of more decisive Israeli military actions in the near future.
The coming months will reveal whether Hezbollah can adapt to this new strategic reality or whether the organization, long a central pillar of Iran’s regional agenda, will fracture under the weight of mounting internal and external pressures.
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